Macroeonomic Strategies

Professor: Dr. Robert J. Barbera

Room: Wyman Park Building 594

Office Hours: Wed, 10:00-12:00 pm, or by appointment

E-mail: rjb46@jhu.edu

Phone #: 410-516-7604


Teaching Assistant: Brian Green

Office Hours: Friday 2:30-3:30 pm, Greenhouse Annex

E-mail: bgreen25@jhu.edu


Note: All website issues should be sent to the TA.

Course Objectives

1. To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues: theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).

2. To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.

3.To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.

4. To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.



2018 Summary Course Outline

2018 Summary Course Outline Updated


Consensus Forecasts

Strategist Handouts:

Strategy Assignments

CFE Posts

Lord Make Be Pure, But Not Until 2020


Homework #1

Lecture 1

Notes: Lecture 1


Economic Projections of FOMC

IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018

Global Source Partners Monthly Report on China

German Momentum Gives Another Life to Europe's Economic Outlook

How Much Trump's Tax Cuts are Trickling Downk

Weekend 1 Readings

Population Ageing and the Macroeconomy

California's Plot to Avoid the New Tax Cap Wins Key Vote

Lecture 2

Notes: Lecture 2


On the Leverage Cycle

NBER Paper Regarding the Leverage Cycle

Hanna and Her Brothers and Sisters

Weekend 2 Readings

Lecture 3

Notes: Lecture 3

Bitcoin Presentation

Krugman - How Big a Bang for Trump's Buck?

Forecast Model

Labor Force Projections

Forecasting the Effects of the Stimulus

Lecture 4

Notes: Lecture 4

Weekend 4 Readings

The Link Between Pay and Productivity

Productivity Distribution

Lecture 5

Notes: Lecture 5

A Macro Model Without Finance

Okun's Law and Homework #1 Answer Key

Lecture 6


Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate

Consumption-Loan Model of Interest

Barbera Notes on Deriving the Real Interest Rate

Lecture 7

Notes:Lecture 7 Notes

Updated FOMC Projections

Lecture 8

Notes:Lecture 8 Notes

The Chinese Economy is Rebalancing At Last

The Equity Risk Premium

Lecture 9

Notes:Lecture 9 Notes


Lecture 10

Notes:Lecture 10 Notes

Embracing Minsky

Minsky and Wicksell

Lecture 11

Notes:Lecture 11 Notes

The Minsky/Wicksell Model: Analysis of 2016-2018 Development

Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics