180.336

Macroeonomic Strategies


Professor: Dr. Robert J. Barbera

Room: Wyman Park Building 594

Office Hours: Wed, 10:00-12:00 pm, or by appointment

E-mail: rjb46@jhu.edu  

Phone #: 410-516-7604

 


Teaching Assistant:  Chang Ma

Office Hours:  Tuesday 10:00-11:00 am, Greenhouse Annex

E-mail:  cma18@jhu.edu

 

Note: All website issues should be sent to the TA.

Course Objectives

1. To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues: theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).

2.  To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.

3.  To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.

4.  To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.     


Downloads

2017 Summary Course Outline

Lectures 1-10 breakdown

2017 Syllabus

Consensus Forecasts


Strategist Handouts:

Team List

US macro forecaster

US Fixed Income Economist Strategist

Asia Strategist

Geo-Political Strategist

European Strategist

CFE Posts

Surely we’re behind some curve!

Six Degrees of Separation between Jobs and Inflation


Lecture 1

Notes: Lecture 1

Readings:

Economic Projections of FRB 12-14-2016

Economists versus the Economy, Robert Skidelsky, 12/23/16, PROJECT SYNDICATE

The long and painful journey to world disorder, Martin Wolf, 01/05/17, FINANCIAL TIMES

When Government Misguides

China Must Quickly Tackle its Corporate Debt Problem, Kang and Maliszewski, 12/16/16, IMF

A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks, Maurice Obstfeld, 12/20/16, IMF

The economic consequences of Donald Trump, 11/9/16, Free Exchange, THE ECONOMIST

Tax Planning for Trump and the Next Four Years, Cameron Keng, 01/3/16, FORBES

Lecture 2

Notes: Lecture 2

Readings:

Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class, Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, Felipe Severino, M.I.T.

The Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos, YALE UNIVERSITY

Lecture 3

Notes: Lecture 3

Readings:

The US Phillips Curve

Okuns Law

PROBLEMS WITH DESTINATION-BASED CORPORATE TAXES AND THE RYAN BLUEPRINT, Reuven S. Avi-Yonah1 Kimberly Clausing

Lecture 4

Notes: Lecture 4

Readings:

Are the Saudis Thinking Clearly and Should We? Robert J. Barbera

G-Force: Why America’s Growth Soared…And won’t be soaring anytime soon, ECONOMIST MAG.

Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovations Confronts six Headwinds, Robert J. Gordon

Economic Growth, Paul Romer

Nonrival Goods After 25 Years, Paul Romer

Growth Theory and After, Robert M. Solow Prize Lecture, 12/87

Preliminary Multifactor Productivity Trends—2015, Bureau of Labor Statistics

News:

China: The Economic Story of Our Time

Moscow resets expectations as disorder reigns in Washington

Bold claims for AI are hard to compute for economists, John Thornhill

Lecture 5

Notes: Lecture 5

Readings:

Teaching Intermediate Macro using the Three Equation Model, Carlin Soskice

Still Minding the Gap

Three Questions on r*, John Williams F.R. Bank of San Francisco

News:

Why All Exchange Rates Are Bad

Lecture 6

Notes: Lecture 6

Readings:

Samuelson Article

A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years

News:

Forecasts of US fiscal Armageddon are wrong

Lecture 7

Notes: Lecture 7

Readings:

Fed tightening but no revival of the ‘Greenspan conundrum’

Lecture 8

Notes: Lecture 8

Readings:

China’s citizens are complaining more loudly about polluted air

News:

What's Really Driving the Trade Deficit With China

Lecture 9

Notes: Lecture 9

Readings:

loanable funds and monetary policy

IMF ON REAL RATES 2014

Lecture 10

Notes: Lecture 10

Readings:

It's the right moment to embrace the minsky model

Minsky Meets Wicksell

On the Need for (At Least) Five Classes of Macro Models

Lecture 11

Notes: Lecture 9a

Readings:

A Minsky Tour through the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis

SECURITIZED BANKING AND THE RUN ON REPO


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