180.336Macroeconomic StrategiesProfessor: Robert J. Barbera Room: Wyman Park Building 557 Office Hours: Tuesday 1:30 to 2:30 E-mail: rjb46@jhu.edu Phone: 410-516-7615 Course Objectives1.
To attain a rigorous understanding of 2. To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view. 3.To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks. 4. To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box. DownloadsStrategist HandoutsLecture 1 - Global Forecast OverviewNotes: Readings: How Business Schools Can Help Restore Trust in Capitalism IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2020 Lecture 2 - Debt, Leverage, Asset Prices and Scary Bad NewsNotes: Readings: NBER Paper: The Leverage Cycle Lecture 3 - Linking Macroeconomic Barometers: Okun's Law, Phillips Curves, Multipliers, Business CyclesNotes: Readings: U.S. Macro Forecasting: A Primer Forecasting Monthly Job Growth Lecture 4 - In the Dark: Uncertain Long-Term Productivity Projections and Disparate Confounding Cyclical DynamicsNotes: Readings: Weekly Average Gasoline Prices Lecture 5 - A Macro Model without FinanceNotes: Readings: Speech from Fed Chair Powell: Challenges for Monetary Policy [Optional] 3-Equation Model (Carlin-Soskice) Forecast Update: ReadingsFour Dimensional Chess in the Time of Corona Lecture 6 - Real Interest Rates and Real Economic Activity (Postponed)Notes: Readings: A Consumption-Loan Model of Interest (Paul Samuelson) Lecture 7 - Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19Video: Notes: Readings: The Virus Is An Economic Emergency Too Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19 Flattening the Pandemic and Recession Curves (Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas) Estimating Actual Infection Rates from Data on COVID-19 Deaths Lecture 8 - The World of FinanceNotes: Readings: Data: Initial Jobless Claims vs Unemployment Rate Example: Overlapping Generations Lecture 9 - Corporate Equities, Investment Trends and Capitalist FinanceNotes: Readings: Corporate Equities, Investment Trends and Capitalist Finance Lecture 10 - A Theory of Investment Demand: An Expanded Loanable Funds ModelNotes: Readings: An Expanded Loanable Funds Model Lecture 11 - Embracing the Minsky ModelNotes: Readings: The Minsky Model (Barbera-Weise) ExamsMidterm 1: |