Professor: Dr. Robert J. Barbera
Room: Wyman Park Building 594
Office Hours: Wed, 10:00-12:00 pm, or by appointment
Phone #: 410-516-7604
Teaching Assistant: Chang Ma
Office Hours: Tuesday 10:00-11:00 am, Greenhouse Annex
Note: All website issues should be sent to the TA.
To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues:
theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).
2. To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.
3. To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.
4. To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.
2017 Summary Course Outline
Lectures 1-10 breakdown
US macro forecaster
US Fixed Income Economist Strategist
Surely we’re behind some curve!
Six Degrees of Separation between Jobs and Inflation
Notes: Lecture 1
Economic Projections of FRB 12-14-2016
Economists versus the Economy, Robert Skidelsky, 12/23/16, PROJECT SYNDICATE
The long and painful journey to world disorder, Martin Wolf, 01/05/17, FINANCIAL TIMES
When Government Misguides
China Must Quickly Tackle its Corporate Debt Problem, Kang and Maliszewski, 12/16/16, IMF
A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks, Maurice Obstfeld, 12/20/16, IMF
The economic consequences of Donald Trump, 11/9/16, Free Exchange, THE ECONOMIST
Tax Planning for Trump and the Next Four Years, Cameron Keng, 01/3/16, FORBES
Notes: Lecture 2
Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class,
Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, Felipe Severino, M.I.T.
The Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos, YALE UNIVERSITY
Notes: Lecture 3
The US Phillips Curve
PROBLEMS WITH DESTINATION-BASED CORPORATE TAXES AND THE RYAN BLUEPRINT, Reuven S. Avi-Yonah1 Kimberly Clausing
Notes: Lecture 4
Are the Saudis Thinking Clearly and Should We? Robert J. Barbera
G-Force: Why America’s Growth Soared…And won’t be soaring anytime soon, ECONOMIST MAG.
Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovations Confronts six Headwinds, Robert J. Gordon
Economic Growth, Paul Romer
Nonrival Goods After 25 Years, Paul Romer
Growth Theory and After, Robert M. Solow Prize Lecture, 12/87
Preliminary Multifactor Productivity Trends—2015, Bureau of Labor Statistics
China: The Economic Story of Our Time
Moscow resets expectations as disorder reigns in Washington
Bold claims for AI are hard to compute for economists, John Thornhill
Notes: Lecture 5
Teaching Intermediate Macro using the Three Equation Model, Carlin Soskice
Still Minding the Gap
Three Questions on r*, John Williams F.R. Bank of San Francisco
Why All Exchange Rates Are Bad
Notes: Lecture 6
A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years
Forecasts of US fiscal Armageddon are wrong