Macroeonomic Strategies

Professor: Dr. Robert J. Barbera

Room: Wyman Park Building 594

Office Hours: Wed, 10:00-12:00 pm, or by appointment

E-mail: rjb46@jhu.edu  

Phone #: 410-516-7604


Teaching Assistant:  Chang Ma

Office Hours:  Tuesday 10:00-11:00 am, Greenhouse Annex

E-mail:  cma18@jhu.edu


Note: All website issues should be sent to the TA.

Course Objectives

1. To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues: theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).

2.  To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.

3.  To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.

4.  To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.     


2017 Summary Course Outline

Lectures 1-10 breakdown

2017 Syllabus

Consensus Forecasts

Strategist Handouts:

Team List

US macro forecaster

US Fixed Income Economist Strategist

Asia Strategist

Geo-Political Strategist

European Strategist

CFE Posts

Surely we’re behind some curve!

Six Degrees of Separation between Jobs and Inflation

Lecture 1

Notes: Lecture 1


Economic Projections of FRB 12-14-2016

Economists versus the Economy, Robert Skidelsky, 12/23/16, PROJECT SYNDICATE

The long and painful journey to world disorder, Martin Wolf, 01/05/17, FINANCIAL TIMES

When Government Misguides

China Must Quickly Tackle its Corporate Debt Problem, Kang and Maliszewski, 12/16/16, IMF

A Shifting U.S. Policy Mix: Global Rewards and Risks, Maurice Obstfeld, 12/20/16, IMF

The economic consequences of Donald Trump, 11/9/16, Free Exchange, THE ECONOMIST

Tax Planning for Trump and the Next Four Years, Cameron Keng, 01/3/16, FORBES

Lecture 2

Notes: Lecture 2


Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class, Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, Felipe Severino, M.I.T.

The Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos, YALE UNIVERSITY

Lecture 3

Notes: Lecture 3


The US Phillips Curve

Okuns Law


Lecture 4

Notes: Lecture 4


Are the Saudis Thinking Clearly and Should We? Robert J. Barbera

G-Force: Why America’s Growth Soared…And won’t be soaring anytime soon, ECONOMIST MAG.

Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovations Confronts six Headwinds, Robert J. Gordon

Economic Growth, Paul Romer

Nonrival Goods After 25 Years, Paul Romer

Growth Theory and After, Robert M. Solow Prize Lecture, 12/87

Preliminary Multifactor Productivity Trends—2015, Bureau of Labor Statistics


China: The Economic Story of Our Time

Moscow resets expectations as disorder reigns in Washington

Bold claims for AI are hard to compute for economists, John Thornhill

Lecture 5

Notes: Lecture 5


Teaching Intermediate Macro using the Three Equation Model, Carlin Soskice

Still Minding the Gap

Three Questions on r*, John Williams F.R. Bank of San Francisco


Why All Exchange Rates Are Bad

Lecture 6

Notes: Lecture 6


Samuelson Article

A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years


Forecasts of US fiscal Armageddon are wrong

Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics