180.336
Macroeconomic Strategies
Professor: Robert J. Barbera
Room: Wyman Park Building 557
Office Hours: Tuesday 1:30 to 2:30
E-mail: rjb46@jhu.edu
Phone: 410-516-7615
Course Objectives
1.
To attain a rigorous understanding of U.S. macroeconomic barometers (Issues:
theoretical concepts, real world representations, measurement errors/revisions and cyclical fluctuations/secular patterns).
2. To become familiar with the pattern of economic news and the shaping and reshaping of the consensus economic view.
3.To come to appreciate the interplay between long-term trends, economic policies, financial market fluctuations, and exogenous shocks.
4. To learn techniques for Separating Signal from Noise and the Risks/Rewards Inherent in Thinking and Forecasting Outside the Box.
Downloads
Syllabus
Summary Course Outline
Strategist Handouts
U.S. GDP
U.S. Inflation
U.S. Labor Market
U.S. Bond Market
Geo-Political
Lecture 1 - Global Forecast Overview
Notes: Lecture 1
Readings:
How Business Schools Can Help Restore Trust in Capitalism
IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2020
Lecture 2 - Debt, Leverage, Asset Prices and Scary Bad News
Notes: Lecture 2
Readings:
NBER Paper: The Leverage Cycle
Example: Hanna and Hal
Lecture 3 - Linking Macroeconomic Barometers: Okun's Law, Phillips Curves, Multipliers, Business Cycles
Notes: Lecture 3
Readings:
U.S. Macro Forecasting: A Primer
Forecasting Monthly Job Growth
Lecture 4 - In the Dark: Uncertain Long-Term Productivity Projections and Disparate Confounding Cyclical Dynamics
Notes: Lecture 4
Readings:
Weekly Average Gasoline Prices
Lecture 5 - A Macro Model without Finance
Notes: Lecture 5
Readings:
Speech from Fed Chair Powell: Challenges for Monetary Policy
A Barebones Forecasting Model
[Optional] 3-Equation Model (Carlin-Soskice)
Forecast Update: Readings
Four Dimensional Chess in the Time of Corona
Oily Disaster
Lecture 6 - Real Interest Rates and Real Economic Activity (Postponed)
Notes: Lecture 6
Readings:
A Consumption-Loan Model of Interest (Paul Samuelson)
Lecture 7 - Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19
Video: Practice Social Distancing
Notes: Lecture 7
Readings:
The Virus Is An Economic Emergency Too
Forecasting in the Time of COVID-19
Flattening the Pandemic and Recession Curves (Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas)
Estimating Actual Infection Rates from Data on COVID-19 Deaths
Embracing Distancing and Cushioning the Blow to the Economy (Robert J. Barbera, Floyd Norris and Jonathan H. Wright)
Lecture 8 - The World of Finance
Notes: Lecture 8
Readings:
Data: Initial Jobless Claims vs Unemployment Rate
Okun's Law
Example: Overlapping Generations
Lecture 9 - Corporate Equities, Investment Trends and Capitalist Finance
Notes: Lecture 9
Readings:
Corporate Equities, Investment Trends and Capitalist Finance
Lecture 10 - A Theory of Investment Demand: An Expanded Loanable Funds Model
Notes: Lecture 10
Readings:
An Expanded Loanable Funds Model
Lecture 11 - Embracing the Minsky Model
Notes: Lecture 11
Readings:
Embracing the Minsky Model
The Minsky Model (Barbera-Weise)
Exams
Midterm 1: Answers
|