Professor of Economics 410–516–7602 (o) Department of Economics 410–516–7600 (f) Johns Hopkins University ccarroll(at)jhu.edu Baltimore, MD 21218-2685 http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll *
Downloadable Papers (reverse chronological order)
“Epidemiological Expectations.” Christopher D. Carroll and Tao Wang. In Handbook of Economic Expectations volume 1. Elsevier November 2022. econ-ark.github.io/EpiExp
“Liquidity constraints and precautionary saving.” Christopher D Carroll, Martin B Holm, and Miles S Kimball. Journal of Economic Theory 195:105276 2021a. Available at llorracc.github.io/LiqConstr
“Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act.” Christopher D Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, and Matthew N White. International Journal of Central Banking 67 March 2021b. Available at econ-ark.github.io/Pandemic
“Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics.” Christopher D. Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka, and Matthew N. White. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(3):40–76 July 2020
“The Econ-ARK and HARK: Open Source Tools for Computational Economics.” Christopher D. Carroll, Alexander M. Kaufman, Jacqueline L. Kazil, Nathan M. Palmer, and Matthew N. White. In Fatih Akici, David Lippa, Dillon Niederhut, and M Pacer, editors, Proceedings of the 17th Python in Science Conference pages 25 – 30 2018
“The Distribution of Wealth and the Marginal Propensity to Consume.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka, and Matthew N. White. Quantitative Economics 8:977–1020 November 2017. At https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cstwMPC
“Buffer-Stock Saving in a Krusell–Smith World.” Christopher D Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Kiichi Tokuoka. Economics Letters 132:97–100 2015a. At https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cstKS/; extended version available as ECB Working Paper number 1633, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1633.pdf
“Representing Consumption and Saving Without a Representative Consumer.” Christopher D. Carroll. In Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress NBER-CRIW Studies in Income and Wealth. University of Chicago Press 2014. At https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/RepresentingWithoutRA/
“The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Kiichi Tokuoka. The American Economic Review 104(5):107–111 2014. At https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cstMPCxc
Improving the Measurement of Consumer Expenditures. Christopher Carroll, Thomas Crossley, and John Sabelhaus, editors volume 74 of NBER-CRIW Series in Income and Wealth. University of Chicago Press 2015b
“The Benefits of Panel Data in Consumer Expenditure Surveys.” Jonathan A. Parker, Nicholas S. Souleles, and Christopher D. Carroll. In Carroll et al. (2015b). Final version at https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/ParkerSoulelesCarroll/
“International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth.” Christopher D. Carroll, Martin Sommer, and Jiri Slacalek. Review of Economics and Statistics 93(4):1135–1145 October 2011. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cssIntlStickyC/
“How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Misuzu Otsuka. NBER Working Paper Number 12746 December 2006. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12746
“Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income.” Christopher D. Carroll. Journal of Monetary Economics 56(6):780–790 September 2009. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/MPCPerm
“Recent Stock Declines: Panic or the Purge of ‘Irrational Exuberance’?.” Christopher D. Carroll. The Economists’ Voice 5 2008. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/opinion/CampbellShillerReduxFinal.pdf
“Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth.” Christopher D. Carroll and Miles S. Kimball. Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and Finance, 2nd Ed. 2007. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/PalgravePrecautionary.pdf
“The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems.” Christopher D. Carroll. Economics Letters 91(3):312–320 September 2006a. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/EndogenousGridpoints.pdf
“The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations.” Christopher D. Carroll. In Larry Blume and Steven Durlauf, editors, The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, III. Oxford University Press 2006b
“Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households’ Balance Sheets.” Christopher D. Carroll, Karen E. Dynan, and Spencer S. Krane. Review of Economics and Statistics 85(3) August 2003. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/krynoll.pdf
“Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters.” Christopher D. Carroll. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(1):269–298 2003. [PDF],[Code]
“Portfolios of the Rich.” Christopher D. Carroll. In Household Portfolios: Theory and Evidence. MIT Press Cambridge, MA 2002. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/richportfolios.pdf
“A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints.” Christopher D. Carroll. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(3):23–46 Summer 2001a. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryv3JEP.pdf
“Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation).” Christopher D. Carroll. Advances in Macroeconomics 1(1):Article 6 2001b
“Individual Learning About Consumption.” Todd M. Allen and Christopher D. Carroll. Macroeconomic Dynamics 5(4) 2001. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/IndivLearningAboutC.pdf
“‘Risky Habits’ and the Marginal Propsensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income.” Christopher D. Carroll. International Economic Journal 14(4):1–41 2000a. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/riskyhabits.pdf
“Solving Consumption Models with Multiplicative Habits.” Christopher D. Carroll. Economics Letters 68(1):67–77 2000b. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/HabitsEconLett.pdf
“Saving and Growth with Habit Formation.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jody R. Overland, and David N. Weil. American Economic Review 90(3):341–355 June 2000. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/AERHabits.pdf
“Requiem for the Representative Consumer? Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior.” Christopher D. Carroll. American Economic Review 90(2):110–115 May 2000c. At https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/RequiemFull.pdf
“Why Do the Rich Save So Much?.” Christopher D. Carroll. In Joel B. Slemrod, editor, Does Atlas Shrug? The Economic Consequences of Taxing the Rich. Harvard University Press 2000d. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/Why.pdf
“Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants.” Christopher D. Carroll, Changyong Rhee, and Byungkun Rhee. Economic Development and Cultural Change 48(1):33–50 October 1999. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/censave.pdf
“How Important Is Precautionary Saving?.” Christopher D. Carroll and Andrew A. Samwick. Review of Economics and Statistics 80(3):410–419 August 1998. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/howbig.pdf
“Comparison Utility in a Growth Model.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jody R. Overland, and David N. Weil. Journal of Economic Growth 2(4):339–367 December 1997. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/compare.pdf
“The Nature of Precautionary Wealth.” Christopher D. Carroll and Andrew A. Samwick. Journal of Monetary Economics 40(1):41–71 1997
“Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets.” Christopher D. Carroll and Wendy E. Dunn. In Benjamin S. Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg, editors, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1997 pages 165–229. MIT Press Cambridge, MA 1997. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/macroann.pdf; Methodological Appendix: https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/methods3.pdf; Empirical Results and Simulation Programs: https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/cdfiles.html;
“Buffer Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis.” Christopher D. Carroll. Quarterly Journal of Economics CXII(1):1–56 1997
“On the Concavity of the Consumption Function.” Christopher D. Carroll and Miles S. Kimball. Econometrica 64(4):981–992 1996. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/concavity.pdf
“Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, and David W. Wilcox. American Economic Review 84(5):1397–1408 1994a
“Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation.” Christopher D. Carroll and David N. Weil. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40:133–192 June 1994. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/CarrollWeilSavingAndGrowth.pdf
“Are There Cultural Effects on Saving? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence.” Christopher D. Carroll, Changyong Rhee, and Byungkun Rhee. The Quarterly Journal of Economics CIX(3):685–700 August 1994b. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/crr-culture-qje.pdf
“How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?.” Christopher D. Carroll. The Quarterly Journal of Economics CIX(1):111–148 1994. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/howdoesfuture.pdf
“The Decline in U.S. Saving.” Christopher D. Carroll. Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 8(4) 1993
“The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence.” Christopher D. Carroll. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1992(2):61–156 1992. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/BufferStockBPEA.pdf
“Why is U.S. National Saving So Low?.” Lawrence H. Summers and Christopher D. Carroll. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1987(2):607–636 1987. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/NatSavSoLow.pdf
“Why Have Private Saving Rates in the US and Canada Diverged?.” Christopher D. Carroll and Lawrence H. Summers. Journal of Monetary Economics 20(2):249–279 1987. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CarrollSummersJME.pdf
“Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence.” Christopher D. Carroll and Lawrence H. Summers. In B. Douglas Bernheim and John B. Shoven, editors, National Saving and Economic Performance. Chicago University Press Chicago 1991. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/CParallelsY.pdf
“Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving.” Christopher D. Carroll and Akshay Shanker. Revise and Resubmit, Quantitative Economics 2023
“Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies.” Christopher D Carroll, Edmund Crawley, Ivan Frankovic, and Håkon Tretvoll. Under Revision, Quantitative Economics 2023a
“Even Self-Aware Consumers Are Overconfident.” Christopher Carroll, Daniel Grodzicki David Low, and Matthew N. White. working paper 2023b
“Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects.” Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek, and Martin Sommer. Manuscript, Johns Hopkins University 2019
“A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds.” Christopher D. Carroll and Olivier Jeanne. NBER Working Paper Number 15228 August 2009. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cjSOE
“A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving.” Christopher D. Carroll and Patrick Toche. NBER Working Paper Number 15265 August 2009. https://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/ctDiscrete