³⁰Using quarterly income draws generated by this section’s income process with these parameter values, we have estimated the annual ARMA process for assumed in Moffitt and Gottschalk (1995): . The estimates of and are positive and negative, respectively, in line with the coefficients estimated by Moffitt and Gottschalk (1995). This suggests that Moffitt and Gottschalk’s findings are qualitatively consistent with the other papers in this literature, and with our own calibration of the income process. See Appendix B for details.