© February 20, 2012, Christopher D. Carroll EntrepreneurPF

An Entrepreneur’s Problem Under Perfect Foresight

Consider a firm that wants to maximize the present discounted value of profits after subtracting off costs of investment.

   kt  -  Firm  ’s capital stock  at the beginning   of period  t

f(k )  -  The   firm ’s total output   (depends   only on  k )
   τ   -  Tax  rate  on corporate   earnings

   /τ   -  1 -  τ =  Portion  of earnings   untaxed
πt=f(kt)/τ   -  After  tax  revenues

   it  -  Investment    in  period  t
j(i,k )  -  AdJustment     costs associated   with  investment    i given  capital k

   ζ   -  Investment    tax credit  (ITC )
P=  ζ/  -  =  1 -  ζ =  Cost  of 1 unit  of (price-1) investment   after  ITC
   /
ξt=(it+jt)P   -  after-tax  eXpenditures    (purchases   plus adjustment    costs) on  investment
β=1 ∕R   -  Discount   factor  for  future  pro fits (inverse  of interest factor )

The firm’s goal is to pick the sequence of values of it  that solves:

                   ∞
                  ∑     n
e (kt)  =   max∞       β  (πt+n  - ξt+n )                 (1 )
            {i}t  n=0
subject to the transition equation for capital,
kt+1   =   (kt + it)ℸ                           (2 )
where ℸ=(1-δ)  is the amount of capital left after one period of depreciation at rate δ .1 et is the value of the profit-maximizing firm: If capital markets are efficient this is the equity value that the firm would command if somebody wanted to buy it.

The firm’s Bellman equation can be written:

                  ∑∞
e(k  ) =   max        βn  (π    -  ξ   )
 t  t       {i}∞t             t+n     t+n
                  n=0          [                                  ]
                                      ∑∞
       =   max    π  - ξ  +  β   max      βn  (π       -  ξ      )
            {it}   t     t      {i}∞t+1          t+1+n      t+1+n
                                      n=0
       =   max    πt - ξt +  βet+1 ((kt +  it)ℸ)
            {it}

Define jit  as the derivative of adjustment costs with respect to the level of investment.

The first order condition for optimal investment implies:

                           i         k
         0  =   -  P(1 +  jt) + ℸ βe t+1(kt+1 )              (3)
       i             k
(1 +  jt)P  =   ℸ βe t+1(kt+1 )                              (4)

In words: The marginal after-tax cost of an additional unit of investment (the LHS) should be equal to the discounted marginal value of the resulting extra capital (the RHS).

The Envelope theorem says

                                                 ℸ
                                            ◜(---◞ ◟--)◝
 k             k           k      k           ∂kt+1--
et(kt)  =   /τ f (kt) - Pj t +  βe t+1(kt+1 )    ∂k
                                                   t
        =   /τ fk(kt) - Pjkt +   βℸekt+1 (kt+1)                   (5)
                                ◟-----◝◜-----◞
                               =P (1+jit) from  (4)

So the corresponding t + 1  equation can be substituted into (4) to obtain

(1 +  ji)P  =   ( τfk(k    ) + (1 +  ji   -  jk  )P ) ℸβ          (6)
       t         /      t+1            t+1     t+1
which is the Euler equation for investment.

Now suppose that a steady state exists in which the capital stock is at its optimal level and is not adjusting, so costs of adjustment are zero: j=j=ji =  ji   =  jk =  jk   = 0
tt+1t     t+1      t     t+1  .

If ji=ji   =  jk
tt+1     t+1   then (6) reduces to

             -1
          =◜R◞◟ ◝   [            ]
  P   =    β   ℸ  /τfk(ˇk ) + P                        (7)

PR    =   ℸ (P +  /τfk( ˇk))                            (8)
so that the capital stock is equal to the value that causes its after-tax marginal product to match the interest factor, after compensating for depreciation.

Another way to analyze this problem is in terms of the marginal value of capital, λt≡ek (kt).
   t

Rewrite (5) as

          λt   =  /τfk(kt) -  Pjkt + β ℸ (λt +  λt+1 -  λt)        (9)
                     k           k
               =  /τf (kt) -  Pj t + β ℸ (λt +  Δ λt+1 )          (10)
                     k           k
(1 -  βℸ )λt   =  /τf (kt) -  Pj t + Δ  λt+1                      (11)
                   /τfk(k  ) - Pjk  +  Δ λ
          λt   =   ------t-------t-------t+1-                     (12)
                           (1 - β ℸ )
and the phase diagram is constructed using the Δ λt+1  = 0  locus. In the vicinity of the steady state, we can assume jkt ≈  0  in which case the Δ λt+1  =  0  locus becomes
            k
λ   =   -/τf-(kt-)-                           (13)
  t     (1 -  β ℸ )
which implies (since fk(kt)  is downward sloping in kt  ) that the Δλt=0  locus (that is, the λt (kt)  function that corresponds to Δλt=0  ) is downward sloping.

The phase diagram is depicted in figure 1.

The steady state of the model will be the point at which k    =  k  =  ˇk
 t+1      t  , implying from (2) a steady-state investment rate of

ˇk  =   (ˇk +  ˇi)ℸ                                    (14 )

ˇi  =   (1 -  ℸ )ˇk∕ ℸ =  (δ∕ ℸ )ˇk                    (15 )
and solving (8) for    k ˇ
/τf (k )
(              )
  P-(1----β-ℸ)-          k ˇ
       βℸ          =  /τf (k )                     (16 )
which can be substituted into (13) to obtain the steady-state value of λ  :
       (     )
ˇλ  =     RP--   .                           (17 )
          ℸ

We now wish to modify the problem in two ways. First, we have been assuming that the firm has only physical capital, and no financial assets. Second, we have been assuming that the people running the firm only care about the level of profits; suppose instead we want to assume that they must live off the dividends of the firm, and thus they are maximizing the discounted sum of utility from dividends u (ct)  rather than just the level of discounted profits. (Note that we designate dividends by ct  ; dividends were not explicitly chosen in the ϙ  -model version of the problem, because the Modigliani-Miller theorem says that the firm’s value is unaffected by its dividend policy).

We call the maximizer running this firm the ‘entrepreneur.’ The entrepreneur’s level of monetary assets mt  evolves according to

mt+1   =   πt+1  + (mt  -  ξt - ct) R.                 (18 )

That is, next period the firm’s money is next period’s profits plus the return factor on the money at the beginning of this period, minus this period’s investment and associated adjustment costs, minus dividends paid out (which, having been paid out, are no longer part of the firm’s money).

Value is simply the discounted sum of utility from future dividends:

                       ∑∞
vt (kt,mt )  =   max       βnu  (ct+n)
                 {i,c}∞t
                       n(=0                            )
                                    ∑∞
             =   max     u (ct) + β      βnu (ct+1+n )
                 {i,c}∞t
                                    n=0
             =   max    u (ct) + βvt+1  (kt+1,mt+1  ).
                 {it,ct}

Assume that f  and j  do not depend directly on m
  t  . That is, their partial derivatives with respect to mt  are zero.

Then we will have

FOC wrt ct  :

u′(c )  =   Rβvm                              (19)
    t           t+1

Envelope wrt mt  :

vm   =   R βvm                               (20)
 t            t+1
and combining the FOC with the Envelope theorem we get the usual
vm   =   R βvm
 t            t+1
     =   u ′(ct)
              ′
     =   R βu  (ct+1 )
           ′
     =   u (ct+1 )
where the last line follows because we have assumed R β  =  1  .

Now note that the value function can be rewritten as

vt(kt,mt)=   {mia,xm   }  u ((πt+1 -  mt+1 )∕R  +  mt  - ξt) +  βvt+1 (kt+1, mt+1 )
      t t+1
                                                                   (21)

This holds because maximizing with respect to mt+1   (subject to the accumulation equation) is equivalent to maximizing with respect to the components of mt+1   .

For the version in (21) the FOC with respect to i
 t  is

  ′             i        k                  k
u  (ct)(P(1 +  jt) - /τft+1 ℸ∕R )  =   ℸ βv t+1             (22 )

This holds because the derivative of the RHS of (21) with respect to it is

((                )                       )      (        )
u′(c)   ∂/τ-ft+1-∂kt+1--  ∕R -  ∂Pit---  ∂Pjt--  +  β   ∂kt+1--  vk   (k    ,m    )(23 )
t   ∂kt+1    ∂it            ∂it      ∂it             ∂it      t+1   t+1    t+1
(remember that mt+1   is a control variable and thus its derivative with respect to investment is zero) so the FOC translates to
u′(c )(τf k  ℸ ∕R -  1 -  Pji ) + β ℸvk     =   0            (24)
    t  /  t+1                 t         t+1
which reduces to (22).

Now we can use the envelope theorem with respect to kt  to show that

vk  =   u ′(ct)(/τ fk  ℸ ∕R  -  Pjk ) + β ℸvk                (25 )
 t                t+1           t          t+1

This can be seen by directly taking the derivative of the RHS of (21)with respect to kt  :

       ( (               )              )      (        )
  ′        ∂/τft+1-∂kt+1--         ∂Pjt--         ∂kt+1--   k
u (ct)      ∂k      ∂k      ∕R  -  ∂k      + β     ∂k      vt+1       (26)
               t+1      t              t               t
and noting that the Envelope theorem tells us the derivatives with respect to the controls mt+1   and it  are zero while ∂kt+1∕∂kt =  ℸ  .

Now we can combine (22) and (25) to derive the Euler equation for investment

        i          [   k                   i       k   ]
P(1 + jt)  =   ℸ β  /τ f (kt+1 ) + P (1 +  jt+1  - jt+1 ) .       (27 )

To see this, start with the Envelope theorem,

                                     ′         i    k
                                   =u (ct)(P(1+jt)- /τft+1ℸ-∕R) from  (22)
k     ′        k             k                   ◜ ◞ ◟k ◝
vt=   u (ct)(/τf t+1 ℸ ∕R -  Pj t ) +               ℸβv t+1              (28)
      ′        k             k      ′              i       k
 =   u (ct)(/τf( t+1 ℸ ∕R -  Pj) t ) + u (ct)(P (1 + j t) - /τf t+1 ℸ ∕R )  (29)
 =   u′(c )P  1 +  ji - jk                                            (30)
         t          t     t
which means that we can rewrite (22) substituting the rolled-forward version of (30)
′         i       k                  k
u(ct)(P (1 + jt) - /τft+1 ℸ ∕R )  =   ℸβv t+1
                                      ′        (      i       k  )
                             =   ℸβu[ (ct+1 )P  1 +  jt+1 - j t+1        ]
                P (1 +  ji)  =   ℸβ  /τfk(k    ) + P (1 +  ji   - jk   )
                         t                  t+1              t+1     t+1
where the last line follows because with R β =  1  we know that ct+1=ct  implying u ′(ct+1 ) =  u′(ct)  .

Since behavior (for either a firm manager or a consumer) is determined by Euler equations, and the Euler equations for both consumption and investment are identical in this model to the Euler equations for the standard models, there is no observable consequence for investment of the fact that the firm is being run by a utility maximizer, and there is no observable consequence for consumption of the fact that the consumer owns a business enterprise with costly capital adjustment.

Now consider a firm of this kind that happens to have arrived in period t  with positive monetary assets mt  >  0  and with capital equal to the steady-state target value      ˇ
kt = k  .

Suppose that an executive steals all the firm’s monetary assets and disappears.

The consequences for the firm are depicted in figure 2.

Dividends follow a random walk. Thus, there is a one-time downward adjustment to the level of dividends to reflect the stolen money. Thereafter dividends are constant, as are monetary assets (which are constant at zero forever).

The theft of the money has no effect on investment or the capital stock, because the firm’s investment decisions are made on the basis of whether they are profitable and the theft of the money has no effect on the profitability of investments.

Now consider another kind of shock: The firm’s main building gets hit by a meteor, destroying some of the firm’s capital stock.

The results are depicted in figure 3.

Again, because dividends follow a random walk, what the firm’s managers do is to assess the effect of the meteor shock on the firm’s total value and they adjust the level of dividends downward immediately to the sustainable new level of dividends. Thereafter there is no change in the level of dividends.

Investment is more complicated. The firm’s capital stock is obviously reduced below its steady-state value by the meteor, so there must be a period of high investment expenditures to bring capital back toward its steady state. However, the firm started out with monetary assets of zero. Therefore the high initial investment expenditures will be paid for by borrowing, driving the firm’s monetary assets to a permanent negative value (the firm goes into debt to pay for its rebuilding). Gradually over time the capital stock is rebuilt back to its target level, and investment expenditures return to zero (or the level consistent with replacing depreciated capital).

Numerical Solution

The solution code uses the following definitions for the production and adjustment cost functions:2

                α  1- α
f(k, ℓ)  =   Ψk  ℓ                                 (31 )
             ωk  ( i     δ)2
j(i,k )  =   ----  ---  --                         (32 )
              2    k    ℸ
where Ψ is the firm’s productivity and ℓ  is the labor supplied by the entrepreneur (assumed equal to 1).

The policy functions are obtained using the method of reverse shooting, which is based on recovering for a given kt+1   and et+1(kt+1 )  the values of kt , it and et(kt)  consistent with the first order conditions and transition equations.

The reverse-shooting equation for capital comes from a combination of the dynamic budget constraint and the Euler equation. For convenience defining

zt  ≡   kt+1 ∕ℸ                             (33 )
so that
it = zt -  kt,                               (34 )
we can rewrite the investment Euler equation as
                             (                                   )
         P (1 + ji)  =   ℸ β  /τ fk(k    ) + P (1 +  ji  -  jk   )
((            )  t)                  t+1              t+1     t+1
    z◜t-◞◟k◝t
||   i       δ|  |           (                                   )
P|1+ω|  --t---  --|  |   =   ℸ β  /τ fk(kt+1 ) + P (1 +  ji  -  jk   )
((   kt     ℸ )  )                                   t+1     t+1
so that
     (                                  )
zt-1=ℸ β  /τfk (k   ) +  P(1 +  ji   -  jk  )  ∕P ω -  1 ∕ω +  δ∕ ℸ
kt           t+1             t+1     t+1
                                 zt
kt=----(-----------------------i------k---)---------------------------.
 ℸ β  /τ fk(kt+1 ) + P (1 + jt+1 -  jt+1)  ∕P ω  - 1 ∕ω +  δ∕ ℸ +  1

With the values of it  and jt  obtained from these reverse-shooting equations, the reverse-shooting equation for value is very simple: It is the Bellman equation

et(kt)  =   πt - ξt +  et+1(kt+1 )∕R,                  (35 )
where note that πt  and ξt  are direct functions of kt  and it  which we have already computed.

The steady-state level of capital can be obtained from (8):

                                   k ˇ
               PR  ∕ℸ -  P   =   /τf (k )                (36 )
           -P--                  ˇα- 1
               (R ∕ℸ  - 1 )  =   k                      (37 )
(          /τ α    )
   P                1∕(α - 1)
  ----(R ∕ℸ  - 1 )           =   ˇk                      (38 )
  /τ α
while the steady-state value of λ  comes from substituting ˇ
k  into (13). Steady-state value is straightforward to compute, given that in the steady state the capital stock and amount of investment are constant:
        ∞
       ∑                   n
ˇe  =       (/τf(ˇk ) - P ˇi)β                        (39 )
       n=0
                  ˇ
   =   (R ∕r)(/τ f( k) - P ˇi).                      (40 )

The reverse shooting routine starts its backwards iterations from a kˆt  level very close to the steady state of the model and, as discussed in the methodological appendix to TractableBufferStock, the accuracy of the solution is improved if we approximate i
ˆt  with a first order Taylor expansion using the derivative of investment at the steady state:

             k
iˆt  =   ˇi + ˇi ϵ                             (41 )
where the  ˇ   identifies variables at the steady state and ϵ  is the deviation from the steady state.  k
ˇi  is computed by differentiating the Euler equation with respect to k  :
iikik
P(jtit+jt) =
(kk         k         ik         k      ii k     kk        k      ki k )
ℸβ/τfˆt ℸ(1 +  it) + P (jˆt ℸ (1 +  it) + jˆt iˆt - j ˆt ℸ (1 + it) -  jˆt iˆt)
which at the steady-state where ikˆ = ikt =  ˇik
 t  becomes:
iiˇkik         (   kk        ˇk        ik        ˇk     iiˇk    kk        ˇk      kiˇk )
P(jti+jt) =  ℸ β  /τ fˆt ℸ (1 +  i ) + P (jˆt ℸ (1 +  i ) + jˆt i -  jˆt  ℸ (1 + i ) -  jˆt i )
and given any particular set of parameter values ˇik  can be found using standard numerical rootfinding methods.

Finally since the problem is solved under perfect foresight the entrepreneur’s consumption function is simply:

     (               )
        R----(Rβ-)1∕ρ-
ct =                    (mt  + et(kt ) - πt)                (42 )
             R
because this corresponds to the solution to a perfect foresight consumption problem in which the consumer has monetary resources mt  and net nonmonetary financial resources et(kt) -  πt  (see PerfForesightCRRA).


Figure 1: Phase Diagram
PIC


PIC

Figure 2: Negative shock to mt


PIC

Figure 3: Negative shock to kt