²The literature is large; see among many others the analyses of Carroll (1992) on precautionary saving during recessions, Carroll, Otsuka, and Slacalek (2011), Mian, Rao, and Sufi (2011), Berger, Guerrieri, Lorenzoni, and Vavra (2018) and others on wealth effects, and Muellbauer (2007) and Parker (2000) on credit availability and financial liberalization. Some work (e.g., Hall (2011), Eggertsson and Krugman (2012), Guerrieri and Lorenzoni (2017)) has argued (though without much attempt at quantification) that a sudden sharp reversal of the credit-loosening trend played a large role in the recent saving rise. Finally, a series of recent papers investigates the role of housing for the dynamics of consumption (e.g., Justiniano, Primiceri, and Tambalotti (forthcoming), Huo and Ríos-Rull (2016), Garriga and Hedlund (2018), Kaplan, Mitman, and Violante (2017) and Gorea and Midrigan (2018)), but this work focusses on the dynamics during the global financial crisis (rather than also covering ‘normal’ recessions over the last several decades, as we do).