⁴We treat the three driving variables as exogenous inputs into our partial equilibrium model. This is unsatisfying, because all three variables are to some degree endogenous to deeper forces; in particular, the collapse in asset prices in the Great Recession is presumably at least partly attributable to the increase in uncertainty and perhaps to the credit tightening. If there were anything approaching a consensus about the appropriate way to endogenize asset prices (of stocks and, more recently, of housing) we would have preferred to do so, but no such consensus has emerged (see, e.g., the work we refer to in footnotes 2 and 8 for an overview). In this choice, we follow many papers (including Landvoigt (2017) and recently Hubmer, Krusell, and Smith, Jr. (2018)), who model asset returns as exogenous (on exogeneity of asset prices see also our discussion in section 2.4).