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            pdftitle={What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth},
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\begin{document}
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\title{
Dissecting Saving Dynamics: \\ \Large \medskip Measuring Credit, Wealth and Precautionary Effects%
\footnote{
Carroll: Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, \url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/};
Slacalek: European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany, \url{http://www.slacalek.com/}; Sommer: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, \url{http://martinsommeronline.googlepages.com/}.
We thank Charles Kramer, John Muellbauer, David Robinson and Jonathan Wright and seminar audiences at the Bank of England, the ECB and the 2011 NBER Summer Institute for insightful comments, and Kerstin Holzheu and Joanna Slawatyniec for excellent research assistance. The views presented in this paper are those of the authors, and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or management, or to the European Central Bank.}
\\[5pt]
  {\Large Online Appendix\vspace{5pt}}
}

\author{
Christopher Carroll\\ \small\href{mailto:ccarroll@jhu.edu}{\texttt{ccarroll@jhu.edu}} \\  JHU
\and
Jiri Slacalek\\ \small\href{mailto:jiri.slacalek@ecb.int}{\texttt{jiri.slacalek@ecb.int}} \\  ECB
\and
Martin Sommer\\ \small\href{mailto:msommer@imf.org}{\texttt{msommer@imf.org}} \\ IMF
}


\date{\today}

\maketitle
\vspace*{-6mm}

\begin{abstract}
We argue that the US
  personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the
  early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s--2007), and recent
  substantial increase (2008--2010) can all be interpreted using a
  parsimonious `buffer stock' model of optimal consumption choice in
  the presence of uncertainty and time-varying credit
  constraints. According to the model, saving depends on the gap
  between `target' wealth and actual wealth, where the target depends
  on credit conditions and uncertainty.  We identify target wealth
  using measures of uncertainty, expected real interest rates and
  expected income. Our results suggest that higher credit availability
  can account for most of the saving rate's long-term decline, while
  the wealth gap captures the bulk of the business-cycle variation
  (including an important part attributable to movements in the
  precautionary motive).  The model suggests that, if credit conditions
  remain roughly unchanged, the U.S.\ personal saving rate will likely
  remain for considerable time in the neighborhood of the 5--7 percent
  range that has prevailed since the end of 2009.
\end{abstract}

\noindent\textbf{Keywords}: Consumption, Saving, Wealth, Credit Availability, Uncertainty
\\[1mm]
\textbf{JEL classification}: E21, E32
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\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_model.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_inflAdj.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_grossHh.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_netPrivate.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_grossPrivate.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_fofExclDur.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS_prelim_time_fofInclDur.tex

\clearpage
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_model.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_inflAdj.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_grossHh.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_netPrivate.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_grossPrivate.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_fofExclDur.tex
\input../tables/onlineAppendix/tOLS02_fofInclDur.tex
\clearpage


\begin{figure}
\caption{Alternative Saving Rates I.---Inflation Adjustment}
\begin{center} \label{fInflAdjSR}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/onlineAppendix/fInflAdjSR.eps}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\caption{Alternative Saving Rates II.---Net/Gross Personal/Private}
\begin{center} \label{fPrivSR}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/onlineAppendix/fPrivSR.eps}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
\caption{Alternative Saving Rates III.---Flow of Funds Saving Rates}
\begin{center} \label{fFoFSR}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/onlineAppendix/fFoFSR.eps}
\end{center}
\end{figure}
\clearpage

\section{Figures from the Paper}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/saving.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fwyRat.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fCEA.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fFitPost80.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fOLS_fit_time_compare.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fOLS_fit_time_compare_slides.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/mhoUnem.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fCreditAvailability_compare.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fDispIncG.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fPSRcompare.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fCEA_est.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fMho_est.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fPSR_StructDecomp.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fPSR_StructFit.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fFullControls.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fFullControls_slides.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fEstCfunction.eps}
\includegraphics[height=3in,width=\textwidth]{../figures/fPrecSav.eps}


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\end{document}
