

,-------------------.
|  BIBTEX ENTRIES   |
`-------------------'

@article{mosPSinGR,
  author =        {Mody, Ashoka and Franziska Ohnsorge and
                   Damiano Sandri},
  journal =       {IMF Economic Review},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {114--138},
  title =         {Precautionary Saving in the Great Recession},
  volume =        {60},
  year =          {2012},
}

@article{kmitchSaving,
  author =        {Janet H. Kmitch},
  journal =       {Survey of Current Business},
  month =         {October},
  pages =         {10--13},
  title =         {Alternative Measures of Personal Saving},
  volume =        {90},
  year =          {2010},
}

@article{prSaving,
  author =        {Perozek, Maria G. and Marshall B. Reinsdorf},
  journal =       {Survey of Current Business 82},
  month =         {April},
  pages =         {13--24},
  title =         {Alternative Measures of Personal Saving},
  year =          {2002},
}

@article{CBOSaving,
  author =        {{Congressional~Budget~Office}},
  journal =       {Congressional Budget Office Reports},
  month =         {April},
  title =         {Assessing the Decline in National Saving Rate},
  year =          {1993},
}

@article{carroll:brookings,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D.},
  journal =       {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
  note =
  {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/BufferStockBPEA.pdf}},
  number =        {2},
  pages =         {61-156},
  title =         {The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic
                   Evidence},
  volume =        {1992},
  year =          {1992},
  url =           {http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/BufferStockBPEA.pdf},
}

@article{davis&palumbo:wealtheffects,
  author =        {Davis, Morris and Palumbo, Michael},
  journal =       {Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics
                   Discussion Papers 2001-09},
  title =         {A Primer on the Economics and Time Series
                   Econometrics of Wealth Effects},
  year =          {2001},
}

@article{krugmanPostmodern,
  author =        {Krugman, Paul},
  journal =       {New York Times},
  month =         {January},
  note =
  {\url{http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/postmodern-business-cycles/}},
  title =         {Postmodern Business Cycles},
  year =          {2012},
  url =           {http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/27/
                   postmodern-business-cycles/},
}

@article{nsSavingRevisions,
  author =        {Nakamura, Leonard I. and Stark, Thomas},
  journal =       {Working Papers},
  note =
  {\url{http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2007/wp07-8.pdf}},
  publisher =     {Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia},
  title =         {Mismeasured Personal Saving and the Permanent Income
                   Hypothesis},
  year =          {2007},
  url =           {http://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/
                   working-papers/2007/wp07-8.pdf},
}

@article{consumerGEP,
  author =        {{Deutsche Bank Securities}},
  journal =       {Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research: Macro},
  month =         {February 14, 2012},
  title =         {Global Economic Perspectives: Risks to US Consumer
                   Spending Overrated},
  year =          {2012},
}

@inproceedings{parker_nberma_spendthrift,
  author =        {Parker, Jonathan A.},
  booktitle =     {NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999},
  editor =        {Bernanke, Ben S. and Rotemberg, Julio J.},
  pages =         {317--387},
  publisher =     {NBER},
  title =         {Spendthrift in America? On Two Decades of Decline in
                   the U.S. Saving Rate},
  volume =        {14},
  year =          {2000},
}

@article{admmmCredit,
  author =        {Aron, Janine and John V. Duca and John Muellbauer and
                   Keiko Murata and Anthony Murphy},
  journal =       {Review of Income and Wealth},
  title =         {Credit, Housing Collateral, and Consumption: Evidence
                   from Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.},
  year =          {2011},
  doi =           {10.1111/j.1475-4991.2001.00466.x},
}

@article{glLiq,
  author =        {Guerrieri, Veronica and Lorenzoni, Guido},
  journal =       {Manuscript, MIT Department of Economics},
  month =         {June},
  title =         {Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings and the
                   Liquidity Trap},
  year =          {2011},
}

@article{gkLiq,
  author =        {Eggertsson, Gauti B. and Krugman, Paul},
  journal =       {Manuscript, NBER Summer Institute},
  title =         {Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A
                   Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach},
  year =          {2011},
}

@techreport{hall:slump,
  author =        {Hall, Robert E.},
  institution =   {{ASSA M}eetings, Denver},
  type =          {{AEA} {P}residential {A}ddress},
  title =         {The Long Slump},
  year =          {2011},
}

@article{hallQuantifying,
  author =        {Hall, Robert E.},
  journal =       {Manuscript, Stanford University},
  month =         {March},
  title =         {Quantifying the Forces Leading to the Collapse of GDP
                   after the Financial Crisis},
  year =          {2012},
}

@techreport{challe&ragot:precautionaryS,
  author =        {Edouard Challe and Xavier Ragot},
  institution =   {Paris School of Economics},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle},
  year =          {2012},
}

@techreport{alanCrossleyLow:rainyDay,
  author =        {Sule Alan and Thomas Crossley and Hamish Low},
  institution =   {University of Cambridge},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day},
  year =          {2012},
}

@article{ctDiscrete,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D. and Toche, Patrick},
  journal =       {NBER Working Paper Number 15265},
  month =         {August},
  note =
  {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/ctDiscrete}},
  title =         {A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving},
  year =          {2009},
  url =           {http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/ctDiscrete},
}

@article{cjSOE,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D. and Jeanne, Olivier},
  journal =       {NBER Working Paper Number 15228},
  month =         {August},
  note =              {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cjSOE}},
  title =         {A Tractable Model of Precautionary Reserves, Net
                   Foreign Assets, or Sovereign Wealth Funds},
  year =          {2009},
  url =           {http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/papers/cjSOE.pdf},
}

@article{bewley:pih,
  author =        {Bewley, Truman},
  journal =       {Journal of Economic Theory},
  pages =         {252--292},
  title =         {The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Theoretical
                   Formulation},
  volume =        {16},
  year =          {1977},
}

@article{skinner_jme88,
  author =        {Skinner, Jonathan},
  journal =       {Journal of Monetary Economics},
  pages =         {237--55},
  title =         {Risky Income, Life-Cycle Consumption, and
                   Precautionary Saving},
  volume =        {22},
  year =          {1988},
}

@article{zeldes_qje89,
  author =        {Stephen P. Zeldes},
  journal =       {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  number =        {2},
  pages =         {275--98},
  title =         {Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income:
                   Deviations from Certainty Equivalence},
  volume =        {104},
  year =          {1989},
}

@article{deaton_ecta91,
  author =        {Angus Deaton},
  journal =       {Econometrica},
  pages =         {1221--48},
  title =         {Saving and Liquidity Constraints},
  volume =        {59},
  year =          {1991},
}

@article{carroll_bufferStockSaving_qje97,
  author =        {Christopher D. Carroll},
  journal =       {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {1--55},
  title =         {Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent
                   Income Hypothesis},
  volume =        {112},
  year =          {1997},
}

@article{merton:restat,
  author =        {Merton, Robert C.},
  journal =       {Review of Economics and Statistics},
  pages =         {247-257},
  title =         {Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The
                   Continuous Time Case},
  volume =        {50},
  year =          {1969},
}

@article{samuelson:portfolio,
  author =        {Samuelson, Paul A.},
  journal =       {Review of Economics and Statistics},
  pages =         {239--46},
  title =         {Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic
                   Programming},
  volume =        {51},
  year =          {1969},
}

@article{carroll&kimball:concavity,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D. and Kimball, Miles S.},
  journal =       {Econometrica},
  note =
  {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/concavity.pdf}},
  number =        {4},
  pages =         {981--992},
  title =         {On the {C}oncavity of the {C}onsumption {F}unction},
  volume =        {64},
  year =          {1996},
  url =           {http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/concavity.pdf},
}

@article{carroll:atheoryjep,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D.},
  journal =       {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
  month =         {Summer},
  note =
  {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryv3JEP.pdf}},
  number =        {3},
  pages =         {23-46},
  title =         {A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and
                   Without Liquidity Constraints},
  volume =        {15},
  year =          {2001},
  url =           {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/ATheoryv3JEP.pdf}},
}

@inproceedings{mue07,
  author =        {Muellbauer, John N.},
  booktitle =     {Housing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy},
  pages =         {267--334},
  publisher =     {Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of
                   Kansas City},
  title =         {Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure},
  year =          {2007},
}

@misc{aiyagari:opttax,
  author =        {Aiyagari, S. Rao},
  howpublished =  {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper
                   Number~508},
  title =         {Optimal Capital Income Taxation with Incomplete
                   Markets and Borrowing Constraints},
  year =          {1993},
}

@article{cee:habits,
  author =        {Christiano, Laurence J. and Eichenbaum, Martin and
                   Evans, Charles L.},
  journal =       {Journal of Political Economy},
  month =         {February},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {1--45},
  title =         {Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock
                   to Monetary Policy},
  volume =        {113},
  year =          {2005},
}

@techreport{dynan_debtOverhang,
  author =        {Karen Dynan},
  institution =   {Brookings Institution},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back
                   Consumption?},
  year =          {2012},
}

@article{mrsBalance,
  author =        {Atif Mian and Kamalesh Rao and Amir Sufi},
  journal =       {Manuscript, University of California at Berkeley},
  title =         {Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the
                   Economic Slump},
  year =          {2011},
}

@book{fisher:interestTheory,
  address =       {New York},
  author =        {Fisher, Irving},
  publisher =     {MacMillan},
  title =         {The Theory of Interest},
  year =          {1930},
}

@book{friedman:atheory,
  author =        {Friedman, Milton A.},
  publisher =     {Princeton University Press},
  title =         {A Theory of the Consumption Function},
  year =          {1957},
}

@techreport{ducaEtAl10_creditArch,
  author =        {John V. Duca and John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy},
  institution =   {University of Oxford},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Credit Market Architecture and the Boom and Bust in
                   the U.S. Consumption},
  year =          {2010},
}

@techreport{fernandezMuellbauer06,
  author =        {Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio and Muellbauer, John},
  institution =   {Bank of England},
  number =        {314},
  type =          {working paper},
  title =         {Consumer Credit Conditions in the United Kingdom},
  year =          {2006},
}

@techreport{abiadEtAl_FinReforms,
  author =        {Abdul Abiad and Enrica Detragiache and
                   Thierry Tressel},
  institution =   {International Monetary Fund},
  number =        {266},
  type =          {working paper},
  title =         {A New Database of Financial Reforms},
  year =          {2008},
}

@article{demyanykEtAl_JoF07_deregulation,
  author =        {Yuliya Demyanyk and Charlotte Ostergaard and
                   Bent E. S{\o}rensen},
  journal =       {Journal of Finance},
  number =        {6},
  pages =         {2763--2801},
  title =         {U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses, and
                   Interstate Insurance of Personal Income},
  volume =        {62},
  year =          {2007},
}

@article{ducaEtAl_EJ11_housePrices,
  author =        {John V. Duca and John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy},
  journal =       {The Economic Journal},
  number =        {552},
  pages =         {533--551},
  title =         {House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of
                   the US Experience},
  volume =        {121},
  year =          {2011},
}

@techreport{mp02,
  author =        {Mc{C}arthy, Jonathan and Peach, Richard W.},
  institution =   {Federal Reserve Bank of New York},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {139--158},
  type =          {{FRBNY Economic Policy Review}},
  title =         {Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential
                   Investment},
  volume =        {8},
  year =          {2002},
}

@article{dynanEtAl_jme06,
  author =        {Karen E. Dynan and Douglas W. Elmendorf and
                   Daniel E. Sichel},
  journal =       {Journal of Monetary Economics},
  pages =         {123--150},
  title =         {Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced
                   Volatility of Economic Activity?},
  volume =        {53},
  year =          {2006},
}

@inproceedings{gw07,
  author =        {Green, Richard K. and Wachter, Susan M.},
  booktitle =     {Housing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy},
  pages =         {21--67},
  publisher =     {Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of
                   Kansas City},
  title =         {The Housing Finance Revolution},
  year =          {2007},
}

@article{chDebt,
  author =        {Campbell, Jeffrey R. and Hercowitz, Zvi},
  journal =       {Journal of Monetary Economics},
  month =         {January},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {1-16},
  title =         {Welfare Implications of the Transition to High
                   Household Debt},
  volume =        {56},
  year =          {2009},
  url =           {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v56y2009i1p1-16.html},
}

@inproceedings{skinner96_sideshow,
  author =        {Skinner, Jonathan},
  booktitle =     {Advances in the Economics of Aging},
  editor =        {Wise, David A.},
  pages =         {241--272},
  publisher =     {University of Chicago Press},
  title =         {Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?},
  year =          {1996},
}

@article{ludvigsonSteindel_99,
  author =        {Ludvigson, Sydney and Steindel, Charles},
  journal =       {Economic Policy Review},
  number =        {2},
  pages =         {29--51},
  title =         {How Important Is the Stock Market Effect on
                   Consumption?},
  volume =        {5},
  year =          {1999},
}

@article{llTrendCycle,
  author =        {Lettau, Martin and Ludvigson, Sydney},
  journal =       {American Economic Review},
  note =          {\url{http://www.jstor.org/stable/3592779}},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {276--299},
  title =         {Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values:
                   Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption},
  volume =        {94},
  year =          {2004},
  url =           {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3592779},
}

@article{cqs05,
  author =        {Karl E. Case and John M. Quigley and
                   Robert J. Shiller},
  journal =       {Advances in Macroeconomics},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {1--32},
  title =         {Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the
                   Housing Market},
  volume =        {5},
  year =          {2005},
}

@article{cos11,
  author =        {Christopher D. Carroll and Misuzu Otsuka and
                   Jiri Slacalek},
  journal =       {Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {55--79},
  title =         {How Large Are Financial and Housing Wealth Effects? A
                   New Approach},
  volume =        {43},
  year =          {2011},
}

@techreport{bloomFloetottoJaimovich_rubc,
  author =        {Nicholas Bloom and Max Floetotto and Nir Jaimovich},
  institution =   {Stanford University},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Really Uncertain Business Cycles},
  year =          {2009},
}

@techreport{baker_policyUncertainty,
  author =        {Scott R. Baker and Nicholas Bloom and
                   Steven J. Davis},
  institution =   {Stanford University and University of Chicago},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty},
  year =          {2011},
}

@incollection{carroll:richsave,
  author =        {Carroll, Christopher D.},
  booktitle =     {{D}oes {A}tlas {S}hrug? {T}he {E}conomic
                   {C}onsequences of {T}axing the {R}ich},
  editor =        {Slemrod, Joel B.},
  note =          {\url{http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/Why.pdf}},
  publisher =     {Harvard University Press},
  title =         {{W}hy {D}o the {R}ich {S}ave {S}o {M}uch?},
  year =          {2000},
  url =           {http://econ.jhu.edu/people/ccarroll/Why.pdf},
}

@article{dszRichSave,
  author =        {Dynan, Karen E. and Skinner, Jonathan and
                   Zeldes, Stephen P.},
  journal =       {Journal of Political Economy},
  number =        {2},
  pages =         {397--444},
  publisher =     {JSTOR},
  title =         {Do the Rich Save More?},
  volume =        {112},
  year =          {2004},
}

@article{pikettySaez:incomeIneq_qje03,
  author =        {Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez},
  journal =       {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
  number =        {1},
  pages =         {1--39},
  title =         {Income Ineuality in the United States, 1913--1998},
  volume =        {118},
  year =          {2003},
}

@article{bloomEtAl_JME07,
  author =        {Bloom, David E. and Canning, David and
                   Mansfield, Richard K. and Moore, Michael},
  journal =       {Journal of Monetary Economics},
  pages =         {92--114},
  title =         {Demographic Change, Social Security Systems and
                   Savings},
  volume =        {54},
  year =          {2007},
}

@techreport{bosworthChodorowReich07,
  author =        {Barry Bosworth and Gabriel Chodorow--Reich},
  institution =   {Center for Retirement Research, Boston College},
  number =        {2},
  type =          {working paper},
  title =         {Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension},
  year =          {2007},
}

@article{cam87,
  author =        {Campbell, John Y.},
  journal =       {Econometrica},
  pages =         {1249--1273},
  title =         {Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An
                   Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis},
  volume =        {55},
  year =          {1987},
}

@inproceedings{dynanKohn07_indebtedness,
  author =        {Karen E. Dynan and Donald L. Kohn},
  booktitle =     {The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System},
  editor =        {Christopher Kent and Jeremy Lawson},
  pages =         {84--113},
  publisher =     {Reserve Bank of Australia},
  title =         {The Rise in {US} Household Indebtedness: Causes and
                   Consequences},
  year =          {2007},
}

@techreport{moorePalumbo_financesOfUShouseholds,
  author =        {Moore, Kevin B. and Palumbo, Michael G.},
  institution =   {Federal Reserve Board},
  number =        {06},
  type =          {Finance and Economics Discussion Series},
  title =         {The Finances of American Households in the Past Three
                   Recessions: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer
                   Finances},
  year =          {2010},
}

@techreport{brickerEtAl_storm,
  author =        {Jesse Bricker and Brian Bucks and Arthur Kennickell and
                   Traci Mach and Kevin Moore},
  institution =   {Federal Reserve Board},
  number =        {17},
  type =          {FEDS working paper},
  title =         {Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in
                   Family Finances from 2007 to 2009},
  year =          {2011},
}

@techreport{mianRaoSufi_hhBalanceSheets,
  author =        {Atif Mian and Kamalesh Rao and Amir Sufi},
  institution =   {University of Chicago Booth School of Business},
  type =          {mimeo},
  title =         {Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the
                   Economic Slump},
  year =          {2011},
}

@inproceedings{petevEtAl_cAndGreatRecession,
  author =        {Ivaylo Petev and Luigi Pistaferri and
                   Itay Saporta Eksten},
  booktitle =     {The Great Recession},
  editor =        {David B. Grusky and Bruce Western and
                   Christopher Wimer},
  pages =         {161--196},
  publisher =     {Russell Sage Foundation},
  title =         {Consumption and the Great Recession: An Analysis of
                   Trends, Perceptions, and Distributional Effects},
  year =          {2011},
}

@article{ssModeration,
  author =        {Sabelhaus, John and Song, Jae},
  journal =       {Journal of Monetary Economics},
  month =         {May},
  note =
  {\url{http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v57y2010i4p391-403.html}},
  number =        {4},
  pages =         {391-403},
  title =         {The Great Moderation in Micro Labor Earnings},
  volume =        {57},
  year =          {2010},
  abstract =      {Between 1980 and the early 1990s the variability of
                   labor earnings growth rates across the prime-age
                   working population fell significantly. This decline
                   and timing are consistent with other macro and micro
                   observations about growth variability that are
                   collectively referred to as the \&quot;Great
                   Moderation.\&quot; The variability of earnings growth
                   is negatively correlated with age at any point in
                   time, and the U.S. working age population got older
                   during this period because the Baby Boom was aging.
                   However, the decrease in variability was roughly
                   uniform across all age groups, so population aging is
                   not the source of the overall decline. The variance
                   of log changes also declined at multi-year
                   frequencies in such a way as to suggest that both
                   permanent and transitory components of earnings
                   shocks became more moderate. A simple identification
                   strategy for separating age and cohort effects shows
                   a very intuitive pattern of permanent and transitory
                   shocks over the life cycle, and confirms that a shift
                   over time in the stochastic process occurred even
                   after controlling for age effects.},
  url =           {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/
                   v57y2010i4p391-403.html},
}

