²My data are updated from a spreadsheet Shiller graciously makes available on his web page; I have projected the data on earnings and dividends to the present from the latest numbers available in Shiller’s spreadsheet, which was posted online on August 18, 2008. The “Fitted values” line reflects the fit of a regression that includes data only from Octobers, though results are virtually identical if all data are used (and very similar even if the sample is restricted to nonoverlapping periods – see the original Campbell and Shiller paper for a discussion of statistical issues).